ANÁLISIS FUNDAMENTAL
OPEC+ Strategic Context
The latest OPEC+ meeting delivered a modest production hike for December and a pause on further increases during Q1 2026. The group aims to avoid pushing prices lower amid weak demand signals and early-year oversupply concerns.
Sanctions on Russia and Supply Impact
Sanctions against Russian giants such as Rosneft and Lukoil are restricting Russia’s ability to ramp up exports. This prompted OPEC+ to act cautiously in restoring quotas, supporting prices and reinforcing the cartel’s strategic unity.
Weekly Focus: Inventories and Uncertainty
This week’s spotlight is on U.S. crude inventories, which show sharp declines and strengthen expectations of a market rebalancing. Traders also watch macroeconomic doubts in China and Europe, ongoing trade negotiations, and seasonal balance adjustments.
Volatility and Trading Opportunities
The mix of OPEC+ caution, sanctions, and signs of global slowdown keeps volatility elevated. Traders find opportunities in quick reactions to headlines and inventory data—especially when figures surprise and move crude prices sharply.
ANÁLISIS TÉCNICO | XBRUSD, H4
Despite a moderate two-week rebound, price action remains inside a bearish channel since July and below the last daily resistance at 66.30, with a weekly supply concentration near 64.61. From that level, price moved down toward last week’s demand zone around 63.90, close to a local support at 63.73.
Main bearish scenario: A rebound from the current demand zone around 64.00 is expected, targeting the developing supply zone near 64.61, where sellers could reactivate momentum for another bearish extension toward 63.73, 63.35, 63.00, and 62.77. A breakthrough of these levels would confirm an intraday bearish reversal and could extend the week’s decline toward 62.10, the next key buyer volume node.
Alternative bullish scenario: Bearish pressure would be invalidated if price breaks decisively above 65.17, opening the way for an extension toward 66.00 or even 67.00.
