Fundamental Analysis

Latest relevant U.S. labour indicators (October)

● ADP (Nov 5, 2025): ADP reported that the private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, with gains in education/health and transportation, and declines in information and professional services.

● ADP — Weekly series (four weeks to Oct 25): ADP and market media highlighted that the four-week average showed an approximate loss of 11,250 jobs per week, suggesting short-term weakening in labour momentum.

● ISM — Manufacturing Employment (Nov 3, 2025, for Oct): The manufacturing employment subindex came in at 46.0, below the 50 contraction threshold, reflecting job cuts or hiring slowdowns among manufacturers.

● ISM — Services/Non-manufacturing Employment (Nov 5, 2025, for Oct): The non-manufacturing employment subindex reached 48.2, also below 50, indicating a slowdown in hiring across service-sector respondents.

● Unemployment-rate reporting issue: Officials/advisers indicated that the household survey was not conducted in October due to administrative shutdown/disruption, meaning the October employment report may be released without the unemployment rate. Payrolls will be reported, but not the jobless rate, according to recent coverage by Reuters/Bloomberg.

What to expect from the upcoming U.S. job data?

So far, we have mixed signals — the monthly ADP shows net job creation (+42k), but the weekly ADP series and both ISM subindexes point to weakening conditions.

Market projections for the September 2025 employment report

Forecasts for nonfarm payrolls (NFP) in September point to +50,000 jobs, according to FactSet — a modest figure well below the 12-month average of ~123,900, signalling a clear slowdown in job creation.

FactSet’s projected unemployment rate is 4.3%, matching the Chicago Fed’s real-time estimate for September.
The Chicago Fed model also includes prediction intervals showing uncertainty, with some moderate scenarios suggesting a possible rise toward 4.5%.

Potential surprise impact

● If payrolls come in near the lower bound (~30,000):
This would signal clear weakness and strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts.

● If payrolls reach the upper bound (~80,000):
It could signal labour-market resilience and create a positive surprise, though still below stronger monthly trends.

● Unemployment rate:
A reading near 4.3% would confirm stability per the Chicago Fed model; a print above its prediction range could raise concerns of a sharper labor deterioration.

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index (DXY) | H4

The USD remains in a daily uptrend, with the last key daily support at 98.49. As long as the price holds above this level, the bullish sequence remains intact.

On the H4 chart, price is approaching last week’s supply zone at 99.52.
If the reaction here fails to break below support at 98.94, bulls may regain control, pushing toward 99.66 and potentially extending the move toward 100.00, confirming an H4 bullish reversal.

However, if bearish pressure at 99.52 breaks 98.94, the price is likely to seek buy-side liquidity around the 98.80 demand zone, which may trigger a recovery bounce.

A Dollar Index rebound tends to favour:
Longs: USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF, etc.
Shorts: GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, XAUUSD, etc.